Time for a rare serious post--because as easy and entertaining as it is to make fun of the DPRK's goofy looking hereditary Stalinist dictator, the ongoing drama between the United States and Kim is simply fascinating. But quickly before I do take a serious moment:
There.
Now as I was saying, the standoff is fascinating because as crazy as Kim and his regime appear to be acting, it's all extremely rational. Ever since the Soviet Union went the way of the buffalo, the North Koreans have had to latch onto the Chinese for assistance that I'm guessing is not quite as plentiful as it might have been during communism's heyday. Thus, they've had one primary goal since: get rid of sanctions and establish relations with the United States.
We know this...Or at least we did. Most people don't know just how dangerously close we came to war with North Korea back in 1994. Kim Il Sung had recently died and the regime became very unstable. While the IAEA became suspicious about plutonium development, the North Koreans took the erratic step of blocking IAEA inspections and announcing that they would begin removing spent fuel from their nuclear reactor. The U.S. gave serious consideration to the military option but ultimately, Clinton took the carrot approach over the stick. He agreed, along with South Korea and Japan, to build North Korea two light water nuclear reactors, incapable of producing weapons grade plutonium, and provide 500,000 tons of fuel oil in exchange for North Korea shutting down its hard water reactor at Yongbyon, which could produce plutonium. The North Koreans believed that this was the path towards official relations with Washington. Essentially, they got what they wanted by threatening the U.S.
In 1995, the new Republican Congress that took over was less than enamored with the deal. They refused to fund the program for a number of years and proceeded deliberately to underfund it later on. The North Koreans became frustrated with the delays in construction of the reactors, but apparently desired to continue building their relationship with the Americans--reference Madeleine Albright's visit in late 2000.
Soon after, the Republican-controlled Congress was joined by a Republican-controlled Executive that took a more hostile stance towards the regime, as evidenced by the "axis of evil" line in the 2002 State of the Union address. Some have claimed that North Korea abandoned its agreement to refrain from building nuclear weapons before this point. No one outside the peninsula can really say for sure. But what is clear is that since then, the North Koreans have returned to their original strategy of acting out in world affairs while making demands upon the United States. They outright admitted building nuclear weapons in October 2003 negotiations, regularly threaten hostilities, and now have taken to shooting off missiles (in contravention of another non-treaty agreement made with the Clinton administration) toward Hawaii. Why? Because acting flagrantly is the only way they've ever managed to get what they want from the U.S.
That having been said, while the strategy might have been rational, it isn't necessarily wise. Simply put, Bush isn't Clinton. Clinton loved olive branches: the Olso Accords, his work on the Good Friday Agreement, his reestablishment of relations with the Vietnamese, etc. Bush? Eh...Bigger fan of sticks than carrots. But nonetheless...
North Korean foreign policy: rational, not childish or crazy.
But then again: kidnapping South Korean and Japanese film stars to make one's own movies, maintaining the world's largest film collection while the rest of the country starves (+20,000--and I hear he's fond of Rambo), spreading propaganda that he was born atop some sacred mountain, not to mention that goofy ass haircut...Maybe the guy really is just a kid at heart.
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