More Fantasy Conclave

My buddy Kris Goss from college sent me this. Get your bets in soon:

Irish Bookmaker Taking Bets on Next Pope

By SHAWN POGATCHNIK, Associated Press Writer

DUBLIN, Ireland - While the cardinals huddle over who should become the next pope, Ireland's largest bookmaker has been doing a big business that for some gamblers would mean thousands of dollars going up in smoke.

Paddy Power PLC, which often features irreverent gambling opportunities, has been taking bets for the past five years on who will succeed John Paul II. With Monday's start to the secretive conclave, gamblers have flocked to the company's Web site.

"It's unbelievable. This is the biggest novelty bet we've ever run, much bigger than the Oscars," said Paddy Power, a spokesman for the firm of the same name, in a telephone interview from the outskirts of Vatican City, where his grease-pencil odds board highlights the market dynamics.

Power said more than 9,000 bets have come in since John Paul's death, including 1,500 Sunday and about 700 more by midday Monday, worth a total exceeding $195,000.

Several other Web-based bookies also are listing their own — and often very different — papal odds, including British-based Pinnacle and William Hill.

But Paddy Power offers the most options, with odds for 89 of the 115 cardinals, led by Francis Arinze of Nigeria at 3-1, while 14 cardinals at the bottom rate 125-1. A winning $1 bet at 3-1 odds would pay out $4, while 125-1 would return $126.

A few big bets have shifted the odds substantially. Arinze surged Monday from 8-1 after receiving several large bets Sunday, including one for $1,300.

The cardinal he replaced as favorite, Joseph Ratzinger of Germany, saw his odds lengthen Monday to 5-1, in second place with Jean-Marie Lustiger of France. The odds were current as of noon EDT.

Dionigi Tettamanzi of Italy, the early betting favorite while John Paul was on his deathbed, remained alone in fourth place at 7-1.

Italy's Cardinal Carlo Martini, who attracted the biggest single bet of $2,600, nonetheless saw his odds slip Monday to joint fifth place at 8-1. Alongside him was one of the betting market's rising stars, Claudio Hummes of Brazil, the most populous Catholic nation.

The odds on four American cardinals stand at 100-1, but Power said that may have more to do with the fact that U.S. credit cards — almost alone in the world — are barred for use on gambling sites. Most bets from Americans were coming through friends with European credit cards, he said.

"The betting can have a definite nationalistic tone," he said. "Croatians were calling up and asking why their cardinal wasn't on the list — he's on now! — and the Australians were extremely quick to bid up their cardinals."

Substantial sums are also landing on how long the cardinals' conclave will take before it sends up the puffs of white smoke from the Sistine Chapel chimney that signal the election of a pope. A decision Tuesday or Wednesday both merit 6-4 odds, while a deadlock lasting more than six days is considered unlikely at 7-1.

Yet another angle seeks wagers on the new pope's name. Benedict is favorite at 3-1, John Paul just behind at 7-2. Augustine and Damian trail the pack at 80-1.

Power's advertising odds board in Rome cannot take any cash bets directly. Nonetheless, it has drawn attention from Vatican City security forces.

"Yesterday, we set up right outside St. Peter's Square and were nearly arrested by undercover police," he said. "Today, we're staying on the edge of the city so we can make a quick getaway if we have to. We don't want to end up in the slammer."

Church policy takes a more sanguine view toward gambling, particularly for its own parish fund-raisers.

Its teachings, as updated by John Paul II, advise that "games of chance or wagers are not in themselves contrary to justice. They become morally unacceptable when they deprive someone of what is necessary to provide for his needs and those of others. The passion for gambling risks becoming an enslavement."

Gambling is in the soul of Ireland, a European center for horse racing. It's common here to have a bookmakers shop beside a pub playing live sports events.

But with the advent of the Internet, bookie chains based chiefly in Britain and Ireland have developed international pitches, as illustrated by Paddy Power's other novelty offerings Monday: odds on who'll win the "American Idol" TV show and be cast as J.R. Ewing in "Dallas the Movie."